Rumors about wafer purchase: AMD to replace Apple as TSMC largest customer

AMD TMC 7NM

TSMC will probably be producing all chips for AMD soon, as predicted by the world’s largest contract manufacturer’s wafer sales. According to rumors, AMD could replace Apple as the largest customer in the coming year, at least in terms of wafer volumes.

Thanks to the constant use of TSMC’s state-of-the-art production, Apple is always one step ahead of the competition, but the manufacturer also has to pay high prices. Since Apple buys hundreds of millions of chips over several quarters, the manufacturer has been TSMC’s larger customer for some time. According to forecasts, AMD will buy more wafers for chip exposure from the end of next year, albeit almost exclusively from 7 nm production, while Apple is fully betting on 5 nm. 7 nm compared to the previous generation is correspondingly cheaper to have.

More but perhaps not enough wafers!?

According to the Chinese magazine UDN, AMD had a decrease of 2,000 to 3,000 wafers per month at TSMC in 2019, this year the amount increased to up to 8,000 wafers per month. In the coming year, the value is to be doubled again: Over 16,000 wafers per month are to ensure a share of sales of over 20 percent.

The fact that AMD’s order quantities were more conservative in the past has long been an open secret. In response to criticism of delivery difficulties, AMD TSMC has always defended itself and explained that it underestimated demand and ordered too little capacity. This is obviously still the case at the moment. AMD apparently cannot deliver enough of the very well-received Renoir chips, the first notebook manufacturers complain about significant delays. The problem is expected to affect the industry as a whole as a result of a sharp increase in demand (and exceeding AMD’s forecast).

Doubts about the share of sales

It remains to be seen to what extent the turnover mentioned by UDN, according to which more than 20 percent of TSMC’s turnover is to be made with this relatively small quantity, is correct.

According to the last quarterly report (PDF), TSMC produces nearly three million wafers per quarter. The fact that not even 50,000 wafers - even if the manufacturing processes are predominantly progressive - account for more than 20 percent of sales does not sound plausible. ; especially since Apple is supposed to make even more sales with fewer chips. The remaining 2.9 million wafers are likely to generate just over 50 percent of sales, while three percent of manufacturing for AMD and Apple accounts for almost 50 percent of sales. Doubts are in order.

5 nm in view

According to Economic Daily, the 5 nm production is expected to make its debut at AMD in the coming year, possibly even earlier than planned, as TSMC’s capacities have been released due to the loss of Huawei as a customer. In the first place at 5 nm Genoa is mentioned as a new server solution, which will follow on Milan and after current planning will use Zen 4. Milan with Zen 3 will be presented at the end of this year.

That there really is a refresh within a year, however, can still be doubted. AMD had always emphasized that it wanted to keep to cadences of one to one and a half years, most recently there were on average 16 months between new product generations.